材料——从顺风到逆风
下面是小编为大家整理的材料——从顺风到逆风,供大家参考。
G l o b al R e sear c h
19
A u g u st 2020
EM
S ect o r
K e y s
M ater i als
–
F r om
tai lwi n d s
to
he adwi n d s ; U nde rw e ig h t
C h i na " s
cr e d i t
e x pan si o n
i s
p e a k i n g ;
supp l y
d i sr up t i o ns
may
n o t
b e
su st a i n e d Th e
re - ope ni ng of
ec onom i e s
a nd unpr ece de nt e d m one t a r y
s t i m ul us
s i n ce
th e
h ei gh t
o f th e
Co v i d-19 c r isis
h ave
prop el l ed
EM
M ateri al s
s to cks
s h ar p l y
h i gh er.
Pri c es
o f
s om e c ommod i ti e s ,
s u c h
as
c opp er
an d
i ron
o re,
h ave
exc eed ed
th ei r
p re - C ov i d-19
pe a k s , but
t hi s
ha s
b ee n
pa r t l y
dr i ve n
by
s uppl y
di s ru pt i ons ,
no t
j us t
a
de m a nd
r ec ov e r y . C hi na " s
c r e di t
ex pa ns i on h as
b een
key , bu t
eas i ng mo men tu m ma y
h ave
p eaked . S t r u ct u r a l
ch an g e s:
C l e an
e n e r g y ,
r e cy cl i n g ,
ch an g i n g
m o b ili t y
pa tt e r ns
A
s h i ft
fro m
M ateri a l
t o
I n tel l ec tu al
i s
one
of
t he
Se ve n
M eg atren d s
th at
w e
s ee
as b ei ng
acc el erated
b y
th e
C o v i d-19
p an d emi c .
Un d ern eath
t h at,
w e
an t i c i p ate
th re e maj or s tru c tu ra l
c h an g e s : ( 1 )
c l ean en er g y
i s
s et
to
red u ce
d eman d f or th ermal
c o a l after
i ts
p eak
ex p ec ted
i n
th e
n ex t
th ree
to
fi ve
years ;
( 2 )
r ec yc li n g
o f
m et al s
–
by 2030, s c rap
s te el
may
acc oun t
fo r o v er
40 %
o f
o v eral l
s teel
s upp l y
i n Ch i n a
v s
20-25 % c urr e nt l y ;
a nd
( 3)
ch an g i n g
m o b ili t y
pa tt e r ns
–
ri s i ng
p en etrati on
o f
5 G
n etw o rks an d el ec tri c
v eh i c l e
s al e s
s hou l d b e n efi t
li th i um, c ob a l t,
n i c k el , c opp er
a nd al u mi n i um. Th at
s ai d, th e
ou tl ook fo r b attery
makers
i s
c l earl y
po s i ti v e,
i n our v i ew , as
w e
fo rec as t th e
s h are
o f
n e w
en erg y
v eh i c l es
( NEV s )
i n to tal
au to
s al e s
to
qu ad rup l e
to
16.6 %
b y 2025,
w i th
th e
fi ve
l arg es t
g l ob al
b attery
makers
c ap tu ri ng
c 84 %
o f
th e
market.
I n c on tras t,
w e
ar e
s tru c tu ral l y
b eari s h
on
i ron
o re
medi um- te rm,
w i th
B raz ili an
s up pl y ex p ec ted
to
rec o v er
an d w i th
th e
i ron o re
pr i ce
w el l
ab o ve
th e
c o s t
c u rve.
ESG :
Ea r l y
d ays ;
a
l o n g
w ay
aw ay
f r o m
ac h i evi n g
c ar b o n
n eu t r al i t y
Re ce nt
i nc i de nt s ,
s uc h
a s
No ril s k
Ni c kel " s
fu e l
s p ill
an d
V a le " s
t a ili ng s
d a m
sp ill ,
h ave h ei gh ten ed
i n v es to r c on c ern s . Wh il e
w e
s ee
s o me
prog res s
b y
EM
M ateri al s
c omp an i e s on th e
ESG
fro n t,
w e
th i nk i t
i s
s ti ll
earl y
d ay s
i n th e
ESG
i mpro v emen t
j ourn ey
fo r E M M ateri al s
s t o cks
an d th at
th e
p ath w ay
to
ac h i ev i ng c arb on n e u tral i ty
i s
un c l e ar.
S t r a t e g y :
U n d e r w e i g h t
Ma t e r i a l s
as
d i ssi pa t i n g
t a il w i n d s
p r i ce d
as
p e r si st e n t Ch i n a" s
c red i t
ex p an s i on a nd a
w eake r USD
h ave
h el p ed
EM
C yc li c al s , s u c h as
M ateri al s s to cks . Hi s to r i c al l y , th e
i mp ac t
o f
th e
fo rmer
fac to r l as ted
fo r s ev eral
mon th s
( F i gur e
1 ). Th i s
t i me,
ho w ev er,
w e
do no t
ex p ec t
th i s
te mp l ate
to
ho l d, as
w e
b el i eve
al l
tai l w i nd s h ave
al read y
b e en
p ri c ed
as
i f
t h ey
are
s et
to
p ers i s t
s i gn i fi c an tl y
l ong er
th a n w e
th i nk t h ey
w ill.
F i gur e
2 be l ow
s how s
U BS
a na l y s t s "
t op s t oc k pi c k s . F i g u r e
1 :
C h i n a" s
n e w
TS F
e x eq u i t y
v s
E M
M at eri al s
F i g u r e
2 :
M o st f a v o u r e d
st o c k s
800
700
600
500
P h ilip
F in c h S trateg i s t phi li p.f i nch@ ubs . com
+ 44-20-7568
3456
A l exey
O st ap c hu k S trateg i s t a l exe y.os t a pchuk @ ubs .com
+ 44-20-7567
0239
Bhanu
Ba w e j a
S trateg i s t bha nu.ba w e j a @ u bs .com
+ 44-20-7568
6833
D an i el
Majo r
A na l ys t da ni e l .m a j or @ ubs .com
+ 44-20-7568
3472
J am es
K an
A na l ys t j a m e s .k a n@ ubs .com
+ 852-2971
6334
A n d r eas B o kke nh e u ser
A na l ys t a ndr ea s .bokk e nh euse r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
9516
Yon g - Su k So n ,
CFA A na l ys t yongs uk .s on@ ubs .com
+ 82-2-3702
8804
Ti m
B ush
A na l ys t ti m- d.bus h @ ubs.c om
+ 852-2971
6113
S hi l an
M o di A na l ys t s hi l a n.modi @ ubs .com
+ 27-11-322
7302
400
300
200 30 25 20 POSC O
Buy
₩270,000 24 - 62%
005490 K S
15 10 Va l e
Buy
R$1 3.0 6.6 25%
V A L E3
BZ
S our ce :
M a crob ond, M S CI , Da ta s tr ea m, UB S
S our ce : R eu t er s,
U B S
e st i mat e s
www .u b s.co m / i n vest m en t r esea r ch
T hi s
r e por t
ha s
be e n pr e pa r e d by
U BS
A G
L ondon Bra nc h.
ANAL YS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E GI N O N
P AGE
29 .
UB S
do e s
an d s eeks
to
do bu s i n es s
w i t h c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
re s earc h r ep o rts . As
a
res u l t,
i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v i ty
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. S out he r n
Coppe r
Buy
$49.0 32 - 24%
S CCO
US
Z ijin
M inin g
( A )
Buy
CNY7 .6 33 8. 9%
601899 CH
Bas i c
Mate ri a l s
Em er gi ng M ar ke t s
Equit ies
P ol y us
Buy
$130 20 - 16%
P LZ L
LI
Jul-0 8 Jul-0 9 Jul-1 0 Jul-1 1 Jul-1 2 Jul-1 3 Jul-1 4 Jul-1 5 Jul-1 6 Jul-1 7 Jul-1 8 Jul-1 9 Jul-2 0 MS CI
E M
Mate ria ls
In de x
N ew T SF
ex
eq u i t y
( 3 mma ) /qu a r t e r l y
GD P
( R H S,
ad v an c ed 7 mon t h s )
55 50 2020
202 0E
S t o ck
Ra t i ng
PT
P /E
EPS Bl oom be r g
gr ow t h
C o rre l:
47 %
45 Exx ar o
Buy
ZA R1 65 5.3 21%
E XX
S J
40 G l enc or e
pl c
Buy
ZA R6 1.0 19 - 30%
G LN
S J
35 Po l ym e t al I n t
Buy
£22.0 14 75%
P O LY
LN
EM Mat er i al s
U BS
R es earc h T HESI S
M AP
M O ST
F AV O URED
L EAST
F AV O URED
Exx ar o ,
G l en c o r e,
Po l ym et al ,
Po l yus ,
POSC O , S out he r n
Cop pe r ,
V a le ,
Z ijin
M inin g
C h i na
S h e nhua
E n e r g y ,
G an f e n g
L i t h i um , M aanshan
I r o n
&
St eel
PI VO TAL
Q UESTI O NS
Q:
H o w
st r o n g
has
t h e
r e ce n t
r eco v e r y
i n
ma t e r i a l s
ma r k e t s
b ee n ?
W e
are
s eei ng
a
robu s t
Ch i n a -d ri v en
rec o v ery
v i rtu al l y
ac ro ss
th e
bo ard .
O ur
v i rtu al
Ch i n a
tri p
h as po i n ted
to
10 %
y / y
gro w th
i n i n fras tru c tu re
F AI
i n H2
2020, an d Ch i n es e
prop erty
i n v es tmen t
i s
s et
to ac h i eve
fu ll - yea r gr ow t h of
7%
i n 2020. I n K or ea
a nd T a i w a n, s t ee l
prod uc e r s
ha ve
be gun hi k i ng t he i r p ri c es , w i th
P O SCO
rai s i ng ex po rt
p ri c es
b y
20-30 %
fro m Ju l y . Co pp er
an d i ron o re
p ri c es
h ave
ral li ed a bov e
pr e - C ov i d-19 l eve l s ,
but
t hi s
ha s
be e n
pa r t l y
dr i ve n by
s up pl y
di s r upt i ons , n ot
j u s t
a
de m a nd rec o v er y . I n c on tras t,
th ermal
c o al
h as
l ag g e d th e
c ommod i ty
reb ound, p artl y
attri bu tab l e
to
c onc e r ns a bou t
I ndi a " s
gr ow t h
pr os pe c t s .
W e
s ti ll
ex p ec t
50 %
gro w th
i n
NEV
s al es
th i s
y ear,
s uppo rted
b y po s it iv e
su rp ri s e s
i n th e
Q 2 res u l ts
o f
th e
maj or b attery
makers
i n K o rea.
Q:
W ha t
i s
t h e
l o n g e r - te rm
s tru c tu ra l
o u tl oo k fo r
E M
M a te ri a l s ?
A s h i ft
fro m M ateri a l
t o I n tel l ec tu al
i s
on e
o f
th e
Sev e n M eg atren d s
th at
w e
s ee
as
b ei ng acc el erated by
t he
C ov i d-19 p an d em i c . Un d ern eat h th at,
w e
an ti c i p ate
th ree
maj or s tr u c tu ral
c h an g e s : ( 1 )
c l ean e ne r gy ,
( 2)
r ecyc li ng
of
m e t a l s ,
a nd
( 3)
c ha ngi ng
mo bi li ty
p attern s .
O n
#1,
c l ean
en er g y
i s
s et
to red u ce
d eman d fo r th ermal
c o al
after
p eaki ng i n th e
n ex t
th r ee
to
fi ve
years . O n #2, b y
2030, s c rap s teel
may
acc oun t
fo r o v er
40 %
o f
o v eral l
s t eel
s upp l y
i n C h i n a
v s
20-25 %
c u rren tl y . W e
al s o ex p ec t mo re
rec yc li ng
i n
a l um i ni um,
c oppe r,
a nd
eve n
c oba l t
a nd
li t h i um.
#3
i s
dr i ve n
by
t he
r i s i ng p en etrati on
o f
5 G
n etw o rks
a nd
el ec tri c
v eh i c l e
s al es ,
w h i c h
s hou l d
b e n ef i t
li th i um,
c ob a l t,
n i c kel , c opp er
an d al u mi n i um.
Th at
s ai d, w e
th i nk
th e
ou tl ook
fo r
b attery
makers
is
c le a r ly
po sit i ve , a s
w e fo rec as t
th e
s h are
o f
NEV s
i n to tal
au to
s al es
to
qu ad rup l e
t o 16.6 %
b y
2025, w i th
th e
fi ve
l arg es t g l ob al
b attery
makers
c ap tu ri ng c 84 %
o f
t h e
market.
I n c on tras t,
w e
are
s tru c tu ral l y
b eari s h on i ron o re
medi um ter m, w i th
B raz ili a n s upp l y
ex p ec ted
to
rec o v er
a nd th e
p ri ce
w el l
ab o ve
th e
c o s t
c u rve.
Q:
W ha t
i s
happ e n i n g
o n
t h e
E S G
f r o n t ?
ESG
c on s i d erat i on s
h ave
l ong b een
a
key
h ead w i nd to
th e
c ommod i ty
s ec t o rs , bu t
rec en t
i n c i d en t s , s uc h
a s
N or ils k
Nic k e l" s
f u e l
s p ill
i n
l ate
M ay
an d
V a le " s
t a ilin g s
d a m
sp ill
l as t
y ear
h ave
h ei gh te n e d i n v es to r c on c ...
推荐访问:材料——从顺风到逆风 逆风 顺风 材料
下一篇：《材料角度运用》说课稿